The David McD Economic Indicator:
I noticed several "we're hiring" signs in shop windows at my local Westfield. Historically this has been a good indicator of the employment market and economic conditions generally. Perhaps surprising given a lot of commentary suggesting a weak consumer, although recent ABS data on household spending shows a modest increase in the past two months. I believe my informal employment survey would add to RBA concerns about cutting rates too soon. My forecast, for what it's worth, - federal election first, rate cut later (sorry Albo!)
household spending mom%arterly and annual movements (%) Source: ABS: 10/01/2025
The cost of living is not falling
:Many commentators and politicians are making a lot of noise after the recent CPI release about easing cost of living pressures.Perhaps a maths lesson on the difference between first and second derivatives is appropriate!The CPI is increasing at a slower rate. This means that our cost of living (as measured by the CPI) is still going up but not as much as it was last year.The CPI in the December quarter rose by 0.2% v 0.6% in the same quarter last year. The annual rate of increase was 2.4% v 4.1% last year - definitely a big improvement but it still shows prices rising.It definitely does not mean that the cost of living has improved.
All groups CPI, Australia, quarterly and annual movements (%) Source: ABS: CPI Dec qtr 2024